Friday 28 February 2014

Super Rugby Week 3 Betting preview

Blues v Crusaders (Crusaders –5 - $1.91 Bet365)

The history books show a Crusaders loss but the result was far from an accurate representation of the match with a 78th minute intercept try forging a flattering 8 point Chiefs win. The Crusaders  dominated possession, territory, the breakdown, set piece, but the one stat they came up short was a dreadful 1 from 8 penalties made, 21 points gone begging for the Crusaders. A Benji Marshall lead second half resurgence from the Blues wasn’t enough to overcome a 24-0 halftime deficit. Rookie Simon Hickey enters the mix at number 10 and it will be a big ask to have him guide this Blues team against a Crusaders outfit that brings back 2013 International Player of the Year Kieran Read. 

Rebels v Cheetahs (Cheetahs -1.5 - $1.91 sportingbet.com.au)

The Rebels are the lone team without a game this year, but have lost plenty of talented players from a team that struggled last year. Those players weren’t without their issues, so this ultimately may prove beneficial for a Rebels side in search of their first playoff appearance, but all signs indicate that their pursuit won’t end this season. The Cheetahs responded to their surprising week one loss with a strong win over the Bulls thanks to young fly-half Johan Goosen who is quickly re-establishing his presence after an injury riddled 2013. Despite being in Melbourne, this line seems very generous, the Cheetahs have the tools to be a playoff team, and they should be much too classy for the Rebels regardless of where they play.

Stormers v Hurricanes (Hurricanes +6.5 - $1.90 sportsbet.com.au)

Both of these teams started their campaigns in ordinary fashion, the Stormers losing by 24 to the Lions, and the Hurricanes going down by 18 to the Sharks. The Stormers who had plenty of ball and territory were unable to convert this into points, managing just one try and one penalty from two attempts. The Hurricanes were outclassed in every facet against a powerful and relentless Sharks side that provided very little opportunity for the Hurricanes to compete. The Stormers should be very strong in Cape Town, but will afford the Hurricanes much more opportunity to compete than the Sharks did. The Hurricanes have some special backs who can get across the line and keep things close unless the Stormers elevate their attack.

Chiefs v Highlanders (Chiefs -7.5 - $1.87 ladbrokes.com.au)

The Highlanders came out firing against the Blues, surging to a 24-0 en route to victory, while the Chiefs escaped with a far less convincing 8 point win. The Chiefs struggled mightily with possession and territory, but they did muster some courageous defensive stands late in the match where it looked like the Crusaders were finally going to take the game away from them. That defence will likely prove a much more formidable foe than a Blues side that rolled over for the Highlanders so meekly to begin their clash. The Highlanders won’t have their raucous local crowd to stir them on, but the Chiefs will no doubt have been given plenty of areas to improve on for their first outing in front of the Hamilton faithful this year. 

Waratahs v Reds (Waratahs -5.5 - $1.88 ladbrokes.com.au)

The stars of the Australian conference after round one, the Reds delivered an impressive upset against the Brumbies while the Waratahs stomped on the Force as many expected. The Reds attack showed glimpses of their prowess, but the Waratahs backline quickly showed that they have plenty of firepower as well. There are two main factors in supporting the Waratahs here, the clash taking place in Sydney, and Israel Folau. The former League superstar got his campaign underway in electric form crossing over for three tries, he’s a legitimate threat to break play open every time he touches the ball either making a break for himself, or his strong offloading creating openings for others. Folau powers continue to grow and he’s going to continue to be a handful for even the best opponents.

Force v Brumbies (Brumbies -6.5 - $1.91 Centrebet)

The Force put in a typical gritty performance, but simply could not match the talent of the Waratahs with Folau leading an overwhelming attacking charge. They were solid at the set piece and the breakdown and put in plenty of effort, but did not have the skill to compete. Heading to Perth will provide a boost, but similar problems are on the horizon this week when the Wallaby laden Brumbies stroll into town. The Brumbies made just 82% of their tackles against a Reds side that exposed some holes in the Brumbies defence, but the Force lack the attacking weapons that the Reds have to follow suit. Plenty is expected of the Brumbies this year, and with the Reds and Waratahs making promising starts, the Brumbies will need to bounce back against one of the perceived easy beats of the Australian conference.

Bulls v Lions (Lions +6.5 - $1.90 sportsbet.com) 

The early surprise package of the year, predicted cellar dwellers the Lions backed up their first week upset of the Cheetahs by dishing out a 24 point thumping of the firm favourite Stormers thanks to 29 points from the boot of Marnitz Boshoff. The Lions were outdone when it came to territory and possession, but strong defence restricted the Stormers to just one try and Boshoff did the rest. The Bulls slumped to their second defeat in as many contests in a hard fought contest with the Cheetahs, but another wonder boot in the form of Johan Goosen outshone his Bulls counterpart to secure a 6 point victory. Heading to Loftus will be an immense task for the Lions, but the boot of Boshoff should be able to keep them close.

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