Argentina vs Wallabies preview

Through 9 Rugby Championship appearances Argentina is yet to record a victory, but a wounded Wallabies side offers up a tantalising opportunity for the Pumas to pounce.

After joining the SANZAR nations to form the Rugby Championship last year, the Pumas have mustered up just 1 draw and 8 losses, but currently sitting in third on the Rugby Championship ladder through virtue of a bonus point, the Argentines will have plenty of incentive to firm their position when they take on a Wallabies team who were left licking their wounds at the hands of the Springboks at Suncorp.

The Wallabies have historically had little problem dealing with Argentina with 14 wins in 19 contests, but the current Wallabies incarnation looks a far cry from the reputation their jerseys have earned and the Argentines have the mastermind of many Australian defeats in their coaching ranks in former All Blacks coach Sir Graham Henry. Henry has plenty of experience in exploiting the weaknesses of the Wallabies who have been dealing with all too familiar problems up front where their forwards have simply been outmatched particularly at scrum time and the domination exerted by the Springboks will have done nothing to help their confidence.

Conversely the Pumas have proven that if there is one aspect of the game that they’re ready to compete regularly with the SANZAR it is up front, Argentina for a long time have prided themselves on their scrimmaging and this spells bad news for a Australia. If the Wallabies are once again punished at scrum time and at the breakdown, the accurate boot of Nicolas Sanchez will offer them little reprieve, the Pumas could potentially hang in this game just on the back of Sanchez knocking over penalties.

The Wallabies shambolic state has reached right through to the top of their ranks with their captain, and the man widely considered the world’s greatest halfback, has been relegated to the bench in place of Nic White who will wear the Wallabies number 9 jersey for the first time. Ben Mowen will take on the captaincy in what will be just his 7^th test match after debuting a mere three months ago.

For all of their issues however, the Wallabies still possess on paper an incredibly potent backline, even if we’re yet to really see them click. Regular changes to the backline won’t help their cause and another big change comes this week with Genia being dropped, but if they can finally get the platform up front and find a way to get the likes of Folau and O’Connor some quality ball then these guys know their way to the try line.

Historically the Pumas have struggled outside of Argentina, but they pushed Australia close last year on the Gold Coast going down 23-19 on the back of a 69^th minute try to Digby Ioane, Things were also close back in Rosario where the Wallabies were able to emerge 6 point victors.

 

With Ewen McKenzie still in pursuit of his first win at the helm of the Wallabies he will no doubt have his troops primed for the perceived minnow of the competition. If they can find some semblance of balance in the battle up front then they should have the backs to get them home. It’s unlikely they will find such balance however, and while I predict they’ll do enough to scrape in with a victory, it certainly won’t be by much which makes the Argentina +10 @1.91 line with Bet 365 look very juicy, but act swiftly as the Pumas line has already taken a hammering and will only go down further heading into the weekend. 

Predictions for the NRL finals

1. First week upsets

The Cowboys so often struggle to take down the big teams away from Queensland, but for one week at least they’ll muster up the performance to go past the Sharks. There would be no greater fairy-tale this year than Matt Bowen going out a champion and while sadly it’s not to be, JT and Mango will pour out a heart on their sleeve performance to go past the Sharks before hitting the top four brick wall. Both teams enter the game in high spirits after big wins in round 26 and offer a great contrast in styles with the Sharks physical, grind you down to their level approach in contrast to the great running football the Cowboys, but with the form the Cowboys are in the Sharks won’t be able to tie them down.

The Knights enter the playoffs after a high flying 48 point win over the hapless Eels and while pretty much everyone knocks the Eels around, the Knights will still be feeling pretty good about themselves. Conversely, the Bulldogs limp into the playoffs after floundering to a 16-11 loss to the Broncos. While it’s understandable that the Dogs had little to play for and it can be tough for teams to get up for games like that, they looked very average and have been prone to these flat patches throughout the season  and the Knights have had their number this year winning both contests including a 44-8 hammering at Hunter Stadium. This Bulldogs team have jumped a lot of hurdles this year after they soared to the 2012 Grand Final, but the Knights will finally put this team out of its misery.

2. The refereeing still won’t make sense

If there’s one group that has been worse than the Eels this year it’s the referees. I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories that they’re out to help certain teams, I do subscribe to the theory that their general ineptitude has at times cost teams games and as a result, peoples bets. The referees have, inconsistently, tried to take a hard-line approach to physical altercations in the game, best of luck maintaining that in the war that is finals football. Expect plenty of players being penalised for tackling the opposition too hard, a few quarterback passes that are inexplicably missed by everybody wearing pink, shoulder charges that aren’t penalties because they didn’t hurt anyone and one complete gaff from the TMO. All most of us want from the refereeing is consistency, unfortunately being consistently inconsistent isn’t quite what we were hoping for.

3. No Cinderella story this year

The top four of the Roosters, Bunnies, Storm and Sea-Eagles have monopolised those top spots throughout the year and don’t expect that to change. While there was much parity in the middle of the table, it has been clear for a long time who the top dogs are. The top four hold a combined 19 and 5 record against the bottom four and while any team in the NRL can win on their day, don’t expect any surprises when it comes to these four teams who have been playing finals quality footy for most of the year. This group are the 4 more potent attacks and also the 4 stingiest defences, but when these four teams play each other the defence generally wins out with only 2 games fought among these teams featuring over 36 points. With tighter and more intense defences in the playoffs, expect some low scoring affairs when these heavyweights clash.

4. May the best halves win

All of the old clichés revolve around the big blokes needing to do the work up front to lay the platform and you need great defence to win a premiership, but when you look at the top teams in the competition, big efforts up front and strong defence can be taken for granted. What will prove the difference between these teams will be who can bring the best kicking game to win the territory battle, to force those line drop outs and who can create that little piece of magic to unlock these outstanding defences. It’s no coincidence that the top four teams consist of the best halves combinations in the competition, and these guys hold the key to their teams fortunes in what will be the final audition for the likes of Reynolds, Cherry-Evans, Pearce and Maloney to claim a spot in the Australian World Cup side. If the battle in the halves ends in a stalemate, expect the blokes in the number 1 jersey like Inglis or Stewart to be the players who break the deadlock.

5. Adam has the last laugh

Laurie Daley’s early declaration that Mitchell Pearce would be the New South Wales Origin halfback was met with much criticism and when the Blues limped out to an eight successive Origin defeat once again the selection of Pearce was in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the defending rookie of the year Adam Reynolds has put on a season that may see him take home the Dally M halfback of the year award. A fantastic goal kicker striking at 89%, Reynolds finished the regular season with the third most points in the NRL while also tying for first in try assists. Only two players in the competition had more kicks in play than Reynolds and while the Bunnies team is loaded right across the park the immaculate precision from the boot of Reynolds has been the source of much of their success. After a hamstring injury in the semi-final provided a devastating end to his 2012 finals campaign, missing NSW selection and being denied the minor premiership in round 26, Reynolds will have the last laugh as he guides the Bunnies to their first premiership in over 40 years and takes home a Churchill Medal that Daley will be unable to ignore.