1. First week upsets
The Cowboys so often struggle to take down the big teams
away from Queensland, but for one week at least they’ll muster up the
performance to go past the Sharks. There would be no greater fairy-tale this
year than Matt Bowen going out a champion and while sadly it’s not to be, JT
and Mango will pour out a heart on their sleeve performance to go past the
Sharks before hitting the top four brick wall. Both teams enter the game in
high spirits after big wins in round 26 and offer a great contrast in styles
with the Sharks physical, grind you down to their level approach in contrast to
the great running football the Cowboys, but with the form the Cowboys are in
the Sharks won’t be able to tie them down.
The Knights enter the playoffs after a high flying 48 point
win over the hapless Eels and while pretty much everyone knocks the Eels
around, the Knights will still be feeling pretty good about themselves.
Conversely, the Bulldogs limp into the playoffs after floundering to a 16-11
loss to the Broncos. While it’s understandable that the Dogs had little to play
for and it can be tough for teams to get up for games like that, they looked
very average and have been prone to these flat patches throughout the
season and the Knights have had their number
this year winning both contests including a 44-8 hammering at Hunter Stadium.
This Bulldogs team have jumped a lot of hurdles this year after they soared to
the 2012 Grand Final, but the Knights will finally put this team out of its
misery.
2. The refereeing
still won’t make sense
If there’s one group that has been worse than the Eels this
year it’s the referees. I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories that
they’re out to help certain teams, I do subscribe to the theory that their
general ineptitude has at times cost teams games and as a result, peoples bets.
The referees have, inconsistently, tried to take a hard-line approach to
physical altercations in the game, best of luck maintaining that in the war
that is finals football. Expect plenty of players being penalised for tackling
the opposition too hard, a few quarterback passes that are inexplicably missed
by everybody wearing pink, shoulder charges that aren’t penalties because they
didn’t hurt anyone and one complete gaff from the TMO. All most of us want from
the refereeing is consistency, unfortunately being consistently inconsistent
isn’t quite what we were hoping for.
3. No Cinderella
story this year
The top four of the Roosters, Bunnies, Storm and Sea-Eagles
have monopolised those top spots throughout the year and don’t expect that to
change. While there was much parity in the middle of the table, it has been
clear for a long time who the top dogs are. The top four hold a combined 19 and
5 record against the bottom four and while any team in the NRL can win on their
day, don’t expect any surprises when it comes to these four teams who have been
playing finals quality footy for most of the year. This group are the 4 more
potent attacks and also the 4 stingiest defences, but when these four teams
play each other the defence generally wins out with only 2 games fought among
these teams featuring over 36 points. With tighter and more intense defences in
the playoffs, expect some low scoring affairs when these heavyweights clash.
4. May the best
halves win
All of the old clichés revolve around the big blokes needing
to do the work up front to lay the platform and you need great defence to win a
premiership, but when you look at the top teams in the competition, big efforts
up front and strong defence can be taken for granted. What will prove the
difference between these teams will be who can bring the best kicking game to
win the territory battle, to force those line drop outs and who can create that
little piece of magic to unlock these outstanding defences. It’s no coincidence
that the top four teams consist of the best halves combinations in the
competition, and these guys hold the key to their teams fortunes in what will
be the final audition for the likes of Reynolds, Cherry-Evans, Pearce and
Maloney to claim a spot in the Australian World Cup side. If the battle in the
halves ends in a stalemate, expect the blokes in the number 1 jersey like
Inglis or Stewart to be the players who break the deadlock.
5. Adam has the last
laugh
Laurie Daley’s early declaration that Mitchell Pearce would
be the New South Wales Origin halfback was met with much criticism and when the
Blues limped out to an eight successive Origin defeat once again the selection
of Pearce was in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the defending rookie of the year
Adam Reynolds has put on a season that may see him take home the Dally M
halfback of the year award. A fantastic goal kicker striking at 89%, Reynolds
finished the regular season with the third most points in the NRL while also tying
for first in try assists. Only two players in the competition had more kicks in
play than Reynolds and while the Bunnies team is loaded right across the park
the immaculate precision from the boot of Reynolds has been the source of much
of their success. After a hamstring injury in the semi-final provided a
devastating end to his 2012 finals campaign, missing NSW selection and being
denied the minor premiership in round 26, Reynolds will have the last laugh as
he guides the Bunnies to their first premiership in over 40 years and takes
home a Churchill Medal that Daley will be unable to ignore.
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